International Security Bulletin

yemen

Weekly Brief: October 12, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Russia announced on Monday that its “volunteer” ground forces would join the fighting in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he will not send Russian soldiers to Syria, but the plan to deploy irregulars parallels Russian operations in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The news comes as Russia intensified airstrikes it began last week. Russia claims its bombs are directed at the Islamic State, but most have hit other rebel groups, which oppose the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally. Russia has also begun launching rockets from warships stationed in the Caspian Sea. Russia’s support appears to have enabled Bahsar’s government to embark upon a major offensive in western parts of the country. Some of Russia’s military aircraft have strayed into Turkish airspace, and on Tuesday NATO, which had criticized the deviations into Turkey, rejected Russia’s claim that the incursions were accidental. The same day, Russia offered to reopen talks with the United States about managing operations in Syrian airspace, even as Russian warplanes bombed Islamic State positions in Palmyra. Salam al-Saadi argues in an essay for the Carnegie Endowment that Russia’s goals in Syria involve both strengthening its position in Syria and challenging Western military power across the globe.

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Weekly Brief: September 21, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

The influx of refugees from Syria and other parts of the Middle East and Africa continued to make headlines last week. Migrants attempting to reach Western Europe have been stymied by Hungarian border security, where police used tear gas and water cannons to keep them from overwhelming crossings along Hungary’s border with Serbia, where Hungary has built a fence to keep refugees out. Hungary’s president threatened to build a fence along the border with Romania as well, if migrants detour there. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the harsh tactics were unacceptable. Croatia, by contrast, promised to keep its borders open, but stressed that it is a migration route for refugees and not a destination. Despite its promises, Croatia struggled to deal with the influx of migrants prompted by Hungary’s border closure and eventually closed seven of its eight border crossings with Serbia. European nations have adopted varying policies towards the migrants, while America’s Congress debates permitting more to enter the United States. The White House released a fact sheet indicating that President Obama will advocate for the admission of 10,000 Syrian refugees next year.

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Weekly Brief: May 4, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Representatives from around the world traveled to New York this week to begin the ninth review conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Review conferences have been held every five years since the NPT entered into effect in 1970. American Secretary of State John Kerry, who will lead his country’s delegation, coauthored an article for Foreign Policy emphasizing the twin goals of nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament. However, progress towards the disarmament goals agreed upon at the last review conference (in 2010) has largely stalled, which may create friction as the parties to the NPT try to move forward on nonproliferation and disarmament issues. On Tuesday, Mr. Kerry gave a speech in which he disclosed the number of nuclear warheads in America’s arsenal, as well as the number of retired warheads scheduled for dismantlement. The Federation of American Scientists opines that the 500-warhead reduction during the presidency of Barack Obama is “modest” and “disappointing.”

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Weekly Brief: April 20, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

Al-Shabab militants drove a car loaded with explosives into a government compound in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Tuesday. After the explosion, gunmen stormed the government offices and killed at least 17 people, including eight civilians and two soldiers. Security guards and Somali special forces soldiers eventually managed to secure the building, killing five attackers.

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Weekly Brief: April 13, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

One of the gunmen responsible for the attack on Kenya’s Garissa University College last week, which killed 148 people, was the son of a Kenyan district official. He had been missing for over a year, since dropping out of law school. His father has been cooperating with authorities since reporting his son missing last year. The attack, and other similar, though less deadly ones that have occurred since 2011, are a reaction to Kenya’s fight against al Shabab in Somalia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Garissa attack fits a broader pattern of al Shabab’s targeting of Christians.

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Weekly Brief: April 6, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Parties negotiating limits on Iran’s nuclear program announced a framework agreement on Thursday, which they intend to finalize by the end of June. The talks had intensified ahead of a March 31 soft deadline for a deal. By Monday, three primary sticking points remained: the process of lifting restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program after 10 years, whether the sanctions on Iran should be lifted immediately or phased out, and the details of a mechanism for reimposing sanctions if Iran is found to have violated the terms of the deal. As talks approached their Tuesday night deadline, negotiators warned that the meetings might stretch into Wednesday, even amid signs that the most difficult issues might be postponed to a final agreement in June. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which is embroiled in fighting against rebels supported by Iran in Yemen, warned the United States not to allow Iran to capture too much of Iraq. A veteran Saudi journalist and former government adviser warned that America’s deal with Iran might kickstart Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s own nuclear weapons programs.

The Atlantic has the best summary of the terms of the framework announced Thursday. It reduces Iran’s ability to produce fissile material by limiting the number of centrifuges it may use to enrich uranium and permitting the country to enrich uranium only at the facility at Natanz, for the next ten years. Iran agreed not to enrich uranium beyond 3.67% (well below weapons grade) and to shrink its stockpile for at least fifteen years. The agreement also provides free access to Iran’s nuclear facilities and supply chain for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran also agreed to redesign its heavy water reactor at Arak so that it will not produce weapons grade plutonium. In exchange, the United States and European Union will lift economic sanctions once the IAEA verifies Iran’s compliance with the agreement.

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Weekly Brief: March 30, 2015

By Thucydides  

Middle East

Fighting in Yemen continued to escalate this week. On Wednesday, the Houthi rebels seized an airbase as they moved closer to the city of Aden, where President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi was sheltered. By Thursday, Mr. Hadi had briefly sought shelter in Oman before moving on to Riyadh. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia led airstrikes against the Houthis in the capital, Sanaa, as well as the cities of Saada and Taiz. The strikes also involved aircraft from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan. Pakistan and Egypt provided naval support. All ten countries are predominantly Sunni Muslim, while the Houthis area Shiite group. John Kerry, America’s secretary of state commended the attacks, while Iran (whose population is mostly Shiite) denounced them. Ground troops from the Saudi-led coalition also began to march toward Aden. The Brookings Institution warned that the intervention was unlikely to speed resolution of the conflict. The Daily Beast reports that the conflict in Yemen has become a “regional proxy war” and represents a big setback for American counter-terrorism operations.

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Weekly Brief: March 23, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

On Wednesday, gunmen stormed a museum in Tunis, Tunisia, killing 22 people and injuring at least 22 more. Tunisian security forces killed two attackers in the ensuing firefight, but three remained at large. No organization immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but local groups affiliated with al Qaeda are active in the country, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies suspects that some cells have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Indeed, the Islamic State claimed responsibility the next day and promised more attacks in Tunisia. Tunisian authorities announced nine arrests on Thursday, claiming that four of the persons arrested were directly related to the attack. Foreign Policy reports that the attack threatens the last vestiges of the Arab Spring.

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Weekly Brief: August 2, 2013

By Thucydides  

This is the first installment of the International Security Bulletin‘s Weekly Briefs, which will recap the top security stories from around the world this week. This installment includes updates on elections in Zimbabwe, unrest in Egypt, potential al Qaeda activity in the Middle East, counterterrorism in the United States, potential attacks on computer encryption algorithms, and ongoing violence in the eastern DR Congo.
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