International Security Bulletin

syria

Weekly Brief: October 12, 2015

By Thucydides  

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Russia announced on Monday that its “volunteer” ground forces would join the fighting in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he will not send Russian soldiers to Syria, but the plan to deploy irregulars parallels Russian operations in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The news comes as Russia intensified airstrikes it began last week. Russia claims its bombs are directed at the Islamic State, but most have hit other rebel groups, which oppose the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally. Russia has also begun launching rockets from warships stationed in the Caspian Sea. Russia’s support appears to have enabled Bahsar’s government to embark upon a major offensive in western parts of the country. Some of Russia’s military aircraft have strayed into Turkish airspace, and on Tuesday NATO, which had criticized the deviations into Turkey, rejected Russia’s claim that the incursions were accidental. The same day, Russia offered to reopen talks with the United States about managing operations in Syrian airspace, even as Russian warplanes bombed Islamic State positions in Palmyra. Salam al-Saadi argues in an essay for the Carnegie Endowment that Russia’s goals in Syria involve both strengthening its position in Syria and challenging Western military power across the globe.

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Weekly Brief: October 5, 2015

By Thucydides  

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Russia began airstrikes in Syria on Wednesday. America’s Secretary of State John Kerry said that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad should leave power, but Russian president Vladimir Putin said that Assad should meet with the Syrian opposition to discuss a settlement to the conflict. Though Russia claimed to target the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), it bombed other opponents of the Assad regime as well, including units trained armed by America’s Central Intelligence Agency. The Economist argues that Russia’s intervention might increase the chances for peace. Russia said that its airstrikes would last a few months, even as activists on the grounds reported that most of the Russian strikes hit civilian targets, and seven nations (France, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States) criticized Russia’s actions.

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Weekly Brief: September 28, 2015

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Russia is escalating its military presence in Syria. American officials report (though Russia denies) that Russia has at least 28 warplanes deployed at an airbase near Latakia, on the Syrian coast. Russia also began flying surveillance missions in Syria with drones, a week after sending artillery and tanks to an airbase controlled by the Syrian government at Latakia. Reuters reports that the Russian flights “underscored the risks of U.S.-led coalition aircraft and Russian flights operating in Syria’s limited airspace.” Though Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the United States was receptive to Russia’s increased role in the conflict, a spokesman for the United States Department of State said that there is no change to America’s position: it supports actions to counter ISIL, but not to support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to discuss their countries’ military operations in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Syrian rebels say that increased Russian involvement will prolong the war and could prompt a corresponding influx of support from countries that support the rebel. The Middle East Institute argues that Russia’s actions are likely to lead to further violence but no resolution of the underlying political or security problems. Mitchell A. Orenstein argues in Foreign Affairs that the United States should be concerned about Russia’s moves in Syria.

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Weekly Brief: September 21, 2015

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The influx of refugees from Syria and other parts of the Middle East and Africa continued to make headlines last week. Migrants attempting to reach Western Europe have been stymied by Hungarian border security, where police used tear gas and water cannons to keep them from overwhelming crossings along Hungary’s border with Serbia, where Hungary has built a fence to keep refugees out. Hungary’s president threatened to build a fence along the border with Romania as well, if migrants detour there. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the harsh tactics were unacceptable. Croatia, by contrast, promised to keep its borders open, but stressed that it is a migration route for refugees and not a destination. Despite its promises, Croatia struggled to deal with the influx of migrants prompted by Hungary’s border closure and eventually closed seven of its eight border crossings with Serbia. European nations have adopted varying policies towards the migrants, while America’s Congress debates permitting more to enter the United States. The White House released a fact sheet indicating that President Obama will advocate for the admission of 10,000 Syrian refugees next year.

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Weekly Brief: May 4, 2015

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Representatives from around the world traveled to New York this week to begin the ninth review conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Review conferences have been held every five years since the NPT entered into effect in 1970. American Secretary of State John Kerry, who will lead his country’s delegation, coauthored an article for Foreign Policy emphasizing the twin goals of nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament. However, progress towards the disarmament goals agreed upon at the last review conference (in 2010) has largely stalled, which may create friction as the parties to the NPT try to move forward on nonproliferation and disarmament issues. On Tuesday, Mr. Kerry gave a speech in which he disclosed the number of nuclear warheads in America’s arsenal, as well as the number of retired warheads scheduled for dismantlement. The Federation of American Scientists opines that the 500-warhead reduction during the presidency of Barack Obama is “modest” and “disappointing.”

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Weekly Brief: April 27, 2015

By Thucydides  

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American President Barack Obama acknowledged on Wednesday that an American drone strike on an al Qaeda compound along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in January killed two hostages, an American and an Italian. Mr. Obama claimed that the mistake was due to faulty intelligence, and that American officials had no reason to believe the hostages were at the compound. However, he nonetheless defended the work of the intelligence community. The same strike that killed the hostages also killed Ahmed Farouq, an American citizen and deputy emir of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. In a separate operation in the same region, an American drone strike killed another American al Qaeda operative, Adam Gadahn, who faced treason charges. Mr. Gadahn was a director of al Qaeda’s media campaign, and his death could be a significant blow to the terrorist organization. American officials said neither Mr. Gadahn nor Mr. Farouq was specifically targeted. The New York Times editorial board suggests that these revelations raise doubts regarding the policy guidance governing American drone strikes.

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Weekly Brief: April 20, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

Al-Shabab militants drove a car loaded with explosives into a government compound in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Tuesday. After the explosion, gunmen stormed the government offices and killed at least 17 people, including eight civilians and two soldiers. Security guards and Somali special forces soldiers eventually managed to secure the building, killing five attackers.

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