International Security Bulletin

russia

Weekly Brief: October 12, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Russia announced on Monday that its “volunteer” ground forces would join the fighting in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he will not send Russian soldiers to Syria, but the plan to deploy irregulars parallels Russian operations in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The news comes as Russia intensified airstrikes it began last week. Russia claims its bombs are directed at the Islamic State, but most have hit other rebel groups, which oppose the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally. Russia has also begun launching rockets from warships stationed in the Caspian Sea. Russia’s support appears to have enabled Bahsar’s government to embark upon a major offensive in western parts of the country. Some of Russia’s military aircraft have strayed into Turkish airspace, and on Tuesday NATO, which had criticized the deviations into Turkey, rejected Russia’s claim that the incursions were accidental. The same day, Russia offered to reopen talks with the United States about managing operations in Syrian airspace, even as Russian warplanes bombed Islamic State positions in Palmyra. Salam al-Saadi argues in an essay for the Carnegie Endowment that Russia’s goals in Syria involve both strengthening its position in Syria and challenging Western military power across the globe.

Continue reading →

Weekly Brief: October 5, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Russia began airstrikes in Syria on Wednesday. America’s Secretary of State John Kerry said that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad should leave power, but Russian president Vladimir Putin said that Assad should meet with the Syrian opposition to discuss a settlement to the conflict. Though Russia claimed to target the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), it bombed other opponents of the Assad regime as well, including units trained armed by America’s Central Intelligence Agency. The Economist argues that Russia’s intervention might increase the chances for peace. Russia said that its airstrikes would last a few months, even as activists on the grounds reported that most of the Russian strikes hit civilian targets, and seven nations (France, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States) criticized Russia’s actions.

Continue reading →

Weekly Brief: September 28, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Russia is escalating its military presence in Syria. American officials report (though Russia denies) that Russia has at least 28 warplanes deployed at an airbase near Latakia, on the Syrian coast. Russia also began flying surveillance missions in Syria with drones, a week after sending artillery and tanks to an airbase controlled by the Syrian government at Latakia. Reuters reports that the Russian flights “underscored the risks of U.S.-led coalition aircraft and Russian flights operating in Syria’s limited airspace.” Though Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the United States was receptive to Russia’s increased role in the conflict, a spokesman for the United States Department of State said that there is no change to America’s position: it supports actions to counter ISIL, but not to support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to discuss their countries’ military operations in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Syrian rebels say that increased Russian involvement will prolong the war and could prompt a corresponding influx of support from countries that support the rebel. The Middle East Institute argues that Russia’s actions are likely to lead to further violence but no resolution of the underlying political or security problems. Mitchell A. Orenstein argues in Foreign Affairs that the United States should be concerned about Russia’s moves in Syria.

Continue reading →

Weekly Brief: September 21, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

The influx of refugees from Syria and other parts of the Middle East and Africa continued to make headlines last week. Migrants attempting to reach Western Europe have been stymied by Hungarian border security, where police used tear gas and water cannons to keep them from overwhelming crossings along Hungary’s border with Serbia, where Hungary has built a fence to keep refugees out. Hungary’s president threatened to build a fence along the border with Romania as well, if migrants detour there. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the harsh tactics were unacceptable. Croatia, by contrast, promised to keep its borders open, but stressed that it is a migration route for refugees and not a destination. Despite its promises, Croatia struggled to deal with the influx of migrants prompted by Hungary’s border closure and eventually closed seven of its eight border crossings with Serbia. European nations have adopted varying policies towards the migrants, while America’s Congress debates permitting more to enter the United States. The White House released a fact sheet indicating that President Obama will advocate for the admission of 10,000 Syrian refugees next year.

Continue reading →

Weekly Brief: April 27, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

American President Barack Obama acknowledged on Wednesday that an American drone strike on an al Qaeda compound along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in January killed two hostages, an American and an Italian. Mr. Obama claimed that the mistake was due to faulty intelligence, and that American officials had no reason to believe the hostages were at the compound. However, he nonetheless defended the work of the intelligence community. The same strike that killed the hostages also killed Ahmed Farouq, an American citizen and deputy emir of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. In a separate operation in the same region, an American drone strike killed another American al Qaeda operative, Adam Gadahn, who faced treason charges. Mr. Gadahn was a director of al Qaeda’s media campaign, and his death could be a significant blow to the terrorist organization. American officials said neither Mr. Gadahn nor Mr. Farouq was specifically targeted. The New York Times editorial board suggests that these revelations raise doubts regarding the policy guidance governing American drone strikes.

Continue reading →

Weekly Brief: April 20, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

Al-Shabab militants drove a car loaded with explosives into a government compound in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Tuesday. After the explosion, gunmen stormed the government offices and killed at least 17 people, including eight civilians and two soldiers. Security guards and Somali special forces soldiers eventually managed to secure the building, killing five attackers.

Continue reading →

Weekly Brief: April 6, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Parties negotiating limits on Iran’s nuclear program announced a framework agreement on Thursday, which they intend to finalize by the end of June. The talks had intensified ahead of a March 31 soft deadline for a deal. By Monday, three primary sticking points remained: the process of lifting restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program after 10 years, whether the sanctions on Iran should be lifted immediately or phased out, and the details of a mechanism for reimposing sanctions if Iran is found to have violated the terms of the deal. As talks approached their Tuesday night deadline, negotiators warned that the meetings might stretch into Wednesday, even amid signs that the most difficult issues might be postponed to a final agreement in June. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which is embroiled in fighting against rebels supported by Iran in Yemen, warned the United States not to allow Iran to capture too much of Iraq. A veteran Saudi journalist and former government adviser warned that America’s deal with Iran might kickstart Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s own nuclear weapons programs.

The Atlantic has the best summary of the terms of the framework announced Thursday. It reduces Iran’s ability to produce fissile material by limiting the number of centrifuges it may use to enrich uranium and permitting the country to enrich uranium only at the facility at Natanz, for the next ten years. Iran agreed not to enrich uranium beyond 3.67% (well below weapons grade) and to shrink its stockpile for at least fifteen years. The agreement also provides free access to Iran’s nuclear facilities and supply chain for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran also agreed to redesign its heavy water reactor at Arak so that it will not produce weapons grade plutonium. In exchange, the United States and European Union will lift economic sanctions once the IAEA verifies Iran’s compliance with the agreement.

Continue reading →

Weekly Brief: March 23, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

On Wednesday, gunmen stormed a museum in Tunis, Tunisia, killing 22 people and injuring at least 22 more. Tunisian security forces killed two attackers in the ensuing firefight, but three remained at large. No organization immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but local groups affiliated with al Qaeda are active in the country, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies suspects that some cells have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Indeed, the Islamic State claimed responsibility the next day and promised more attacks in Tunisia. Tunisian authorities announced nine arrests on Thursday, claiming that four of the persons arrested were directly related to the attack. Foreign Policy reports that the attack threatens the last vestiges of the Arab Spring.

Continue reading →