International Security Bulletin

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Weekly Brief: October 12, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Russia announced on Monday that its “volunteer” ground forces would join the fighting in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he will not send Russian soldiers to Syria, but the plan to deploy irregulars parallels Russian operations in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The news comes as Russia intensified airstrikes it began last week. Russia claims its bombs are directed at the Islamic State, but most have hit other rebel groups, which oppose the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally. Russia has also begun launching rockets from warships stationed in the Caspian Sea. Russia’s support appears to have enabled Bahsar’s government to embark upon a major offensive in western parts of the country. Some of Russia’s military aircraft have strayed into Turkish airspace, and on Tuesday NATO, which had criticized the deviations into Turkey, rejected Russia’s claim that the incursions were accidental. The same day, Russia offered to reopen talks with the United States about managing operations in Syrian airspace, even as Russian warplanes bombed Islamic State positions in Palmyra. Salam al-Saadi argues in an essay for the Carnegie Endowment that Russia’s goals in Syria involve both strengthening its position in Syria and challenging Western military power across the globe.

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Weekly Brief: September 28, 2015

By Thucydides  

Top Story

Russia is escalating its military presence in Syria. American officials report (though Russia denies) that Russia has at least 28 warplanes deployed at an airbase near Latakia, on the Syrian coast. Russia also began flying surveillance missions in Syria with drones, a week after sending artillery and tanks to an airbase controlled by the Syrian government at Latakia. Reuters reports that the Russian flights “underscored the risks of U.S.-led coalition aircraft and Russian flights operating in Syria’s limited airspace.” Though Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the United States was receptive to Russia’s increased role in the conflict, a spokesman for the United States Department of State said that there is no change to America’s position: it supports actions to counter ISIL, but not to support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to discuss their countries’ military operations in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Syrian rebels say that increased Russian involvement will prolong the war and could prompt a corresponding influx of support from countries that support the rebel. The Middle East Institute argues that Russia’s actions are likely to lead to further violence but no resolution of the underlying political or security problems. Mitchell A. Orenstein argues in Foreign Affairs that the United States should be concerned about Russia’s moves in Syria.

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Weekly Brief: April 20, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

Al-Shabab militants drove a car loaded with explosives into a government compound in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Tuesday. After the explosion, gunmen stormed the government offices and killed at least 17 people, including eight civilians and two soldiers. Security guards and Somali special forces soldiers eventually managed to secure the building, killing five attackers.

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Weekly Brief: April 13, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

One of the gunmen responsible for the attack on Kenya’s Garissa University College last week, which killed 148 people, was the son of a Kenyan district official. He had been missing for over a year, since dropping out of law school. His father has been cooperating with authorities since reporting his son missing last year. The attack, and other similar, though less deadly ones that have occurred since 2011, are a reaction to Kenya’s fight against al Shabab in Somalia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Garissa attack fits a broader pattern of al Shabab’s targeting of Christians.

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Weekly Brief: March 30, 2015

By Thucydides  

Middle East

Fighting in Yemen continued to escalate this week. On Wednesday, the Houthi rebels seized an airbase as they moved closer to the city of Aden, where President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi was sheltered. By Thursday, Mr. Hadi had briefly sought shelter in Oman before moving on to Riyadh. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia led airstrikes against the Houthis in the capital, Sanaa, as well as the cities of Saada and Taiz. The strikes also involved aircraft from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco, and Sudan. Pakistan and Egypt provided naval support. All ten countries are predominantly Sunni Muslim, while the Houthis area Shiite group. John Kerry, America’s secretary of state commended the attacks, while Iran (whose population is mostly Shiite) denounced them. Ground troops from the Saudi-led coalition also began to march toward Aden. The Brookings Institution warned that the intervention was unlikely to speed resolution of the conflict. The Daily Beast reports that the conflict in Yemen has become a “regional proxy war” and represents a big setback for American counter-terrorism operations.

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Weekly Brief: March 23, 2015

By Thucydides  

Africa

On Wednesday, gunmen stormed a museum in Tunis, Tunisia, killing 22 people and injuring at least 22 more. Tunisian security forces killed two attackers in the ensuing firefight, but three remained at large. No organization immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but local groups affiliated with al Qaeda are active in the country, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies suspects that some cells have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Indeed, the Islamic State claimed responsibility the next day and promised more attacks in Tunisia. Tunisian authorities announced nine arrests on Thursday, claiming that four of the persons arrested were directly related to the attack. Foreign Policy reports that the attack threatens the last vestiges of the Arab Spring.

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