International Security Bulletin

Weekly Brief: October 12, 2015

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Russia announced on Monday that its “volunteer” ground forces would join the fighting in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that he will not send Russian soldiers to Syria, but the plan to deploy irregulars parallels Russian operations in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The news comes as Russia intensified airstrikes it began last week. Russia claims its bombs are directed at the Islamic State, but most have hit other rebel groups, which oppose the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally. Russia has also begun launching rockets from warships stationed in the Caspian Sea. Russia’s support appears to have enabled Bahsar’s government to embark upon a major offensive in western parts of the country. Some of Russia’s military aircraft have strayed into Turkish airspace, and on Tuesday NATO, which had criticized the deviations into Turkey, rejected Russia’s claim that the incursions were accidental. The same day, Russia offered to reopen talks with the United States about managing operations in Syrian airspace, even as Russian warplanes bombed Islamic State positions in Palmyra. Salam al-Saadi argues in an essay for the Carnegie Endowment that Russia’s goals in Syria involve both strengthening its position in Syria and challenging Western military power across the globe.

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Weekly Brief: September 28, 2015

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Russia is escalating its military presence in Syria. American officials report (though Russia denies) that Russia has at least 28 warplanes deployed at an airbase near Latakia, on the Syrian coast. Russia also began flying surveillance missions in Syria with drones, a week after sending artillery and tanks to an airbase controlled by the Syrian government at Latakia. Reuters reports that the Russian flights “underscored the risks of U.S.-led coalition aircraft and Russian flights operating in Syria’s limited airspace.” Though Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the United States was receptive to Russia’s increased role in the conflict, a spokesman for the United States Department of State said that there is no change to America’s position: it supports actions to counter ISIL, but not to support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to discuss their countries’ military operations in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Syrian rebels say that increased Russian involvement will prolong the war and could prompt a corresponding influx of support from countries that support the rebel. The Middle East Institute argues that Russia’s actions are likely to lead to further violence but no resolution of the underlying political or security problems. Mitchell A. Orenstein argues in Foreign Affairs that the United States should be concerned about Russia’s moves in Syria.

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Weekly Brief: September 21, 2015

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The influx of refugees from Syria and other parts of the Middle East and Africa continued to make headlines last week. Migrants attempting to reach Western Europe have been stymied by Hungarian border security, where police used tear gas and water cannons to keep them from overwhelming crossings along Hungary’s border with Serbia, where Hungary has built a fence to keep refugees out. Hungary’s president threatened to build a fence along the border with Romania as well, if migrants detour there. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the harsh tactics were unacceptableCroatia, by contrast, promised to keep its borders open, but stressed that it is a migration route for refugees and not a destination. Despite its promises, Croatia struggled to deal with the influx of migrants prompted by Hungary’s border closure and eventually closed seven of its eight border crossings with Serbia. European nations have adopted varying policies towards the migrants, while America’s Congress debates permitting more to enter the United States. The White House released a fact sheet indicating that President Obama will advocate for the admission of 10,000 Syrian refugees next year.

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