International Security Bulletin

Weekly Brief: September 28, 2015

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Russia is escalating its military presence in Syria. American officials report (though Russia denies) that Russia has at least 28 warplanes deployed at an airbase near Latakia, on the Syrian coast. Russia also began flying surveillance missions in Syria with drones, a week after sending artillery and tanks to an airbase controlled by the Syrian government at Latakia. Reuters reports that the Russian flights “underscored the risks of U.S.-led coalition aircraft and Russian flights operating in Syria’s limited airspace.” Though Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that the United States was receptive to Russia’s increased role in the conflict, a spokesman for the United States Department of State said that there is no change to America’s position: it supports actions to counter ISIL, but not to support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin met with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to discuss their countries’ military operations in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Syrian rebels say that increased Russian involvement will prolong the war and could prompt a corresponding influx of support from countries that support the rebel. The Middle East Institute argues that Russia’s actions are likely to lead to further violence but no resolution of the underlying political or security problems. Mitchell A. Orenstein argues in Foreign Affairs that the United States should be concerned about Russia’s moves in Syria.

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Weekly Brief: April 13, 2015

Africa

One of the gunmen responsible for the attack on Kenya’s Garissa University College last week, which killed 148 people, was the son of a Kenyan district official. He had been missing for over a year, since dropping out of law school. His father has been cooperating with authorities since reporting his son missing last year. The attack, and other similar, though less deadly ones that have occurred since 2011, are a reaction to Kenya’s fight against al Shabab in Somalia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Garissa attack fits a broader pattern of al Shabab’s targeting of Christians.

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Weekly Brief: April 6, 2015

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Parties negotiating limits on Iran’s nuclear program announced a framework agreement on Thursday, which they intend to finalize by the end of June. The talks had intensified ahead of a March 31 soft deadline for a deal. By Monday, three primary sticking points remained: the process of lifting restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program after 10 years, whether the sanctions on Iran should be lifted immediately or phased out, and the details of a mechanism for reimposing sanctions if Iran is found to have violated the terms of the deal. As talks approached their Tuesday night deadline, negotiators warned that the meetings might stretch into Wednesday, even amid signs that the most difficult issues might be postponed to a final agreement in June. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which is embroiled in fighting against rebels supported by Iran in Yemen, warned the United States not to allow Iran to capture too much of Iraq. A veteran Saudi journalist and former government adviser warned that America’s deal with Iran might kickstart Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s own nuclear weapons programs.

The Atlantic has the best summary of the terms of the framework announced Thursday. It reduces Iran’s ability to produce fissile material by limiting the number of centrifuges it may use to enrich uranium and permitting the country to enrich uranium only at the facility at Natanz, for the next ten years. Iran agreed not to enrich uranium beyond 3.67% (well below weapons grade) and to shrink its stockpile for at least fifteen years. The agreement also provides free access to Iran’s nuclear facilities and supply chain for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran also agreed to redesign its heavy water reactor at Arak so that it will not produce weapons grade plutonium. In exchange, the United States and European Union will lift economic sanctions once the IAEA verifies Iran’s compliance with the agreement.

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