International Security Bulletin

Weekly Brief: October 5, 2015

Top Story

Russia began airstrikes in Syria on Wednesday. America’s Secretary of State John Kerry said that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad should leave power, but Russian president Vladimir Putin said that Assad should meet with the Syrian opposition to discuss a settlement to the conflict. Though Russia claimed to target the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), it bombed other opponents of the Assad regime as well, including units trained armed by America’s Central Intelligence AgencyThe Economist argues that Russia’s intervention might increase the chances for peace. Russia said that its airstrikes would last a few months, even as activists on the grounds reported that most of the Russian strikes hit civilian targets, and seven nations (France, GermanyQatarSaudi ArabiaTurkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States) criticized Russia’s actions.

Asia

The United States military is concerned about the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Afghanistan. President Obama has planned to end American military operations in Afghanistan by the end of next year. But the growing number of ISIL fighters active in eastern Afghanistan has the Pentagon worried. Options range from leaving 8,000 of the 9,800 American troops currently stationed in Afghanistan to leaving only a few hundred soldiers tasked with guarding the American embassy in Kabul. This story was lent more urgency on Monday, when Taliban insurgents captured important facilities in the northern city of Kunduz. By Wednesday, the Taliban controlled almost the entire city, except for the local airport, as the United States deployed troops and launched airstrikes against the militants, which continued into Friday. An initial effort to retake the city made limited gains. Afghanistan is also struggling economically, with increasing unemployment and likely playing a role in the decrease in President Ashraf Ghani’s approval rating from 60 percent a year ago to 20 percent today.

Human Rights Watch reports that militias aligned with Myanmar’s military, known as the Pyithu Sit (People’s Militia) and Neh San Tat (Border Guard Forces) are intimidating voters in advance of the country’s elections, next month. Militias operating in areas dominated by ethnic minorities have ordered voters not to register and attempted to shut down voting entirely.

Bombs hidden in packages killed at least seven people and injured more than 50 in Liuzhou, China, the seat of Liucheng county. At least 17 separate bombings were reported at a government office, supermarkets, malls, a hospital, a prison, a bus terminal, and other locations. Officials said they had identified a thirty-three-year-old male suspect with the surname Wei. They also said that terrorism had been “ruled out,” but stressed that their investigation was ongoing.

Africa

The International Crisis Group (ICG) reports that the United Nations, the United States, and France are promoting elections prematurely in the Central African Republic. According to the ICG, the international actors have failed to neutralized armed militias that could disrupt elections scheduled for later this year. ICG also has an excellent report on the history of violence in the CAR.

Americas

American President Barack Obama harshly criticized Russia while speaking to the United Nations General Assembly Monday. Mr. Obama excoriated Russia for defending the Syrian government, taking over Crimea, and supporting Ukrainian rebels. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by complimenting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and calling for support for the Syrian government against ISIL. However, Putin also called for a “broad international coalition” to oppose ISIL.

A congressional task force released a report suggesting that the United States is failing to prevent its citizens from traveling overseas to join the Islamic State. The report estimated that 25,000 foreigners have swelled ISIL’s ranks, including at least 250 Americans in the last nine months. Officials only caught 28 Americans before they could reach ISIL territory.

Europe

Ukrainian separatists were spotted using a a mobile TOS-1 “Buratnio” weapons system for the first time. The sighting is significant because only Russia makes the TOS-1. The separatists’ possession of the Russian-made weapons system casts doubt on Russia’s claims that the rebellion in the eastern Ukraine is an organic uprising rather than Russian-supported discontent.

Middle East

A suicide bomber killed at least seven people and wounded 16 at a security checkpoint in the Iraqi city of Tarmiyah, North of Baghdad. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. Meanwhile, America’s strategy in Iraq is drawing questions, as U.S.-backed Iraqi security forces have failed to retake the city of Ramadi from the Islamic State.