International Security Bulletin

Weekly Brief: May 4, 2015

Top Story

Representatives from around the world traveled to New York this week to begin the ninth review conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Review conferences have been held every five years since the NPT entered into effect in 1970. American Secretary of State John Kerry, who will lead his country’s delegation, coauthored an article for Foreign Policy emphasizing the twin goals of nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament. However, progress towards the disarmament goals agreed upon at the last review conference (in 2010) has largely stalled, which may create friction as the parties to the NPT try to move forward on nonproliferation and disarmament issues. On Tuesday, Mr. Kerry gave a speech in which he disclosed the number of nuclear warheads in America’s arsenal, as well as the number of retired warheads scheduled for dismantlement. The Federation of American Scientists opines that the 500-warhead reduction during the presidency of Barack Obama is “modest” and “disappointing.”

Africa

Nigeria’s army reported on Tuesday that it rescued 200 girls and 93 women who had been captured by Boko Haram. The women and girls were rescued as part of an operation to expel Boko Haram from the Sambisa Forest, during which the army also destroyed three camps run by the militant group. The rescued girls were apparently not the same girls captured from a school in Chibok last year. Not all of the news out of Nigeria this week was positive, however. Residents returning to the northeastern village of Damasak, which the army retook from Boko Haram in March, found scores of bodies scattered throughout the countryside.

The bodies of five journalists were recovered in eastern Libya on Monday. The reporters had been missing since August, when they traveled through a region where Islamic militants have been active, and the Libyan army reports that they were killed by the Islamic State (IS). The Belgium-based International Federation of Journalists confirmed that the reporters had been captured at an IS checkpoint.

On Sunday, April 26, Burundi’s ruling party overwhelmingly elected sitting President Pierre Nkurunziza as its candidate for elections in late June. Mr. Nkurunziza has been in office since 2005 and served two terms. The result was civil unrest in Bujumbura, Burundi’s capital, with police cracking down, sometimes violently, on protesters. Several international organizations, including the UN, have said that attempting to seek a third term is unconstitutional. At least six people were killed in clashes between protesters and police.

Omar al-Bashir, president of Sudan, was reelected on Monday. Mr. Bashir, who is under indictment from the International Criminal Court for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, won 94% of the vote in an election that was boycotted by opposition groups. The United States, United Kingdom, and Norway issued a joint statement last week criticizing the elections as unfair and not representative of the Sudanese people’s wishes.

The Ebola epidemic in Western Africa is taking a severe toll on Sierra Leone’s healthcare system. Ebola has killed at least 3,900 people in the country, but it has also caused so much damage that Sierra Leone’s stressed healthcare infrastructure has been unable to respond to other issues. Indeed, more people are believed to have died from malaria than Ebola.

French troops have been accused of sexually abusing children at displaced persons camp in the Central African Republic during peacekeeping deployments last summer. The UN children’s agency, UNICEF, announced the charges Thursday. French President Francois Hollande promised that there will be no mercy for soldiers convicted of charges against them.

Americas

The United States Congress continued to work toward passing a law that would give it some control over the nuclear deal that the country is negotiating with Iran. Earlier this month, the White House reluctantly accepted a bipartisan bill that would permit Congress to review, and then accept or reject, any deal the President makes with Iran. Several Republican legislators, however, believe the bill to be insufficient. They have offered amendments, such as a requirement that Iran recognize Israel or that any final deal come in the form of the treaty, that could potentially deprive the bill of support from Democrats or prompt a veto from President Barack Obama. At a closed-door meeting with the Republican Jewish Coalition, former President George W. Bush suggested that it might be a mistake to lift sanctions on Iran. Lifting sanctions is one of the key elements of the framework agreement on Iran’s nuclear program that negotiators are working to finalize.

Protests and riots erupted in Baltimore, Maryland on Monday evening following the funeral of Freddie Gray. Cars and buildings were burned and stores were looted during the riots, as hundreds were arrested and at least 20 police officers were wounded. The National Guard was deployed to restore order, and the city implemented a curfew between 10 PM and 5 AM. Mr. Gray, a black man, died under suspicious circumstances while in police custody. His death comes in the wake of a number of recent incidents in which unarmed black men were killed by white police officers. The Washington Post, however, suggests that the issues in Baltimore are primarily economic rather than racial. President Obama said that there was “no excuse” for the violent riots and criticized the “criminals and thugs” who caused damage to people and property, but he noted that the violence followed several days of peaceful protests that got little attention in the media.

In the wake of last week’s announcement that American drone strikes killed two hostages (one Italian and one American) earlier this year, the Wall Street Journal reports that the rules Mr. Obama announced last year to govern the drone program do not apply to CIA strikes in Pakistan. That means that the CIA may target unknown individuals and does not need to establish that the target of a strike poses an “imminent threat” to the United States. The Council on Foreign Relations estimates that the Pakistan exemption means that Mr. Obama’s policy guidance for drone strikes does not apply to 46% of drone strikes. Author and journalist David Rohde, who was himself a captive of the Taliban in Pakistan for seven months, argues that there should more oversight and stiffer requirements for the intelligence that justifies drone strikes.

Asia

China continues its efforts to build new islands in disputed regions of the South China Sea. The Chinese are working at a remarkable pace to pave reefs to create new land in the area of the disputed Spratly Islands. Some of the new islands are of a size and shape consistent with large airstrips capable of handling all types of combat and supply aircraft in China’s arsenal. The Diplomat reports that “The speed, scale, intensity and remoteness of China’s ongoing manufacture of land and infrastructure within the South China Sea have few or no parallels in history outside of wartime.”

Japanese and American leaders meeting in Tokyo announced a new set of guidelines for their countries’ bilateral defense efforts on Monday. The guidelines provide for global cooperation on issue areas including missile defense, cyber security, space warfare, and maritime security. Additionally, the guidelines permit collective defense, a result of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reinterpretation of Japan’s constitution to permit such arrangements. Despite the successful agreement on the new guidelines, significant challenges may strain the relationship between the United States and Japan.

Nursultan A. Nazarbayev won reelection as president of Kazakhstan with 97.7 percent of the vote. Mr. Nazarbayev has ruled the country since it broke from the Soviet Union. He dared Western nations to criticize his victory and claimed that he did not interfere with the voting.

On Tuesday, China demanded that Myanmar act to prevent skirmishes with rebel groups from spilling over the border that separates the two countries. The Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed that shells fired from Myanmar recently landed in China, damaging property but not causing any injuries or deaths.

Europe

German officials reported Thursday that they had foiled a terrorist attack aimed a cycling race held on Friday. German authorities seized a pipe bomb and other materials that could be used to make explosives and arrested a Turkish couple. Police canceled the race in the event that others were involved in the plot or the couple had already planted explosives along the course. Authorities were tipped off in April when a hardware store alerted them that the couple had purchased suspiciously large quantities of hydrogen peroxide, which can be used to make bombs.

Middle East

At dawn on Monday morning, a coalition of Islamist rebels captured an army base in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib. The rebels began the attack with at least one suicide bomber who drove a truck packed with explosives into the military base. The base’s capture marks additional progress for the rebels in the region, who seized Idlib’s second-largest city last week. They now control territory close to Syria’s Mediterranean coast and suggests that the insurgent organizations remain a viable force in the country. The International Crisis Group warns that no side is winning and that the conflict will continue to worsen absent a a major military or diplomatic breakthrough.

Saudi Arabia continued airstrikes against Yemen this week. The Saudis announced an end to their campaign last week, only to resume bombing a day later. As Saudi aircraft bombarded Houthi fighters and rebel arms depots, the Red Cross warned that the humanitarian situation in Yemen has become catastrophic. As foreign navies have blockaded Yemen’s ports, it has been difficult for food aid to reach the country. The UN World Food Program is using its stocks in Yemen to feed people, but shortages are already occurring. The UN special adviser to the Security Council for Yemen said on Monday that the Security Council did not respond swiftly or strongly enough to his warnings and expressed his belief that a Yemeni-led political solution is the only way to end the war. Adam Baron, writing for Foreign Policy, argues that the war benefits no one but says “it is hard to believe that a peace deal is in the cards.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard intercepted the Maersk Tigris, a cargo ship flying the flag of the Marshall Islands, as the Tigris transited the Strait of Hormuz. The ship issued a distress call, to which the United States Navy responded by sending a destroyer, the USS Farragut. There were also reports that the Iranians fired warning shots over the Tigris‘s bow.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia arrested 93 people accused of plotting terrorist attacks, including a car bombing of the United States Embassy.