International Security Bulletin

Weekly Brief: April 20, 2015

Africa

Al-Shabab militants drove a car loaded with explosives into a government compound in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Tuesday. After the explosion, gunmen stormed the government offices and killed at least 17 people, including eight civilians and two soldiers. Security guards and Somali special forces soldiers eventually managed to secure the building, killing five attackers.

Polling places in Sudan opened on Monday for a presidential election. However, many observers believe that the elections are hopelessly rigged in favor of incumbent Omar Hassan al-Bashir. The public is largely apathetic, and opposition groups have called for boycotts of the election.

Two weeks after opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari won Nigeria’s presidential election, the opposition seems poised to to win a majority of state gubernatorial elections as well. Twenty-nine of Nigeria’s 36 states held elections on April 11, and unofficial tallies indicated that the opposition was leading in several northern states formerly controlled by the ruling People’s Democratic Party.

It has been one year since the militant Islamic group Boko Haram kidnapped 219 girls from a school in northeastern Nigeria. More than 50 of the girls were recently spotted alive by witnesses in Gwoza, a town in northern Nigeria, but there are no indications that Nigeria or the countries supporting its efforts against Boko Haram are any closer to recover them. Protesters gathered in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, on Tuesday, to demand stronger efforts from their government to get the girls back. Boko Haram has lost much of its territory in recent months, including Gowza, but it has also abducted at least 2,000 women and girls since the beginning of 2014.

Andre Mba Obame, a Gabonese opposition leader, died at 57 in Cameroon. His supporters suspected foul play and rioted in Libreville, Gabon’s capital, burning cars and setting fire to Benin’s embassy. Mr. Mba Obame was an adviser to President Omar Bongo and served as Mr. Bongo’s interior minister. However, Mr. Mba Obame left the ruling party and ran for president as an independent after Mr. Bongo died. The official results of the election were that Ali Bongo (Omar’s son) won, but Mr. Mba Obame declared himself the winner.

Last week, Kenya announced that it would close the world’s largest refugee camp, which houses 350,000 Somali refugees at Dadaab, Kenya. Kenya suspects that the camp is a rich recruiting ground for al-Shabab, which carried out the deadly terrorist attack on Garissa University College on April 2. On Friday, Amnesty International joined the UN and other organizations (including Doctors Without Borders and Human Rights Watch) in calling on Kenya to halt plans to close the camp. According to Amnesty and the UN, abrupt closure would result in the camp’s occupants being denied safety and medical care.

Anti-immigrant violence in South Africa had killed at least five people as of Friday, as angry South Africans attacked foreign-owned businesses. Police responded to the violence with rubber bullets and made 18 arrests in Johannesburg.

Americas

The United States Senate reached a deal on Tuesday that would allow a bipartisan bill regarding the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program to come to a vote. The bill would give Congress 30 days to review any agreement and potentially disapprove of the deal. President Barack Obama would then have 12 days to decide whether to accept or veto Congress’s disapproval. Mr. Obama has threatened to veto such a bill, but Senate Democrats have indicated that the bill may have enough support to override the President’s veto (overriding requires the votes 2/3 of legislators in both houses of Congress). Speaker of the House John Boehner said that Congress “absolutely should have the opportunity to review” any deal with Iran because the administration “appears to want a deal at any cost.”

A former employee of Blackwater Worldwide was sentenced to life in prison by an American federal judge on Monday. The employee, Nicholas A. Slatten, was convicted of first degree murder for his actions during a shooting in 2007 when Blackwater contractors killed 14 unarmed Iraqis in a Baghdad traffic circle. Three other Blackwater employees were convicted of lesser offenses.

For the first time in 60 years, American and Cuban leaders met at a regional summit in Panama. The meeting was part of a long-term effort by the Obama administration to move towards normalization or relations with the Caribbean island. Cubans are hopeful that the resumption of relations with the United States will improve the island nation’s economy. Despite optimism on both sides, a number of hurdles to normalization will make resuming relations a challenge.

Asia

China and Russia agreed to a deal by which China would purchase at least six Russian made S-400 Triumf missile defense systems for $3 billion. The S-400 can fire three different types of missiles and can simultaneously engage 36 targets, and it is designed to down aircraft and ballistic and cruise missiles.

Fighting broke out between Taliban fighters and the Afghan Army this week in the northeastern part of Afghanistan. During an attack in the Jurm district of Badakhstan Province on Friday, April 10, the Taliban killed 18 Afghan soldiers, some of whom were reportedly beheaded.

Chinese officials explained for the first time their strategy of massive land reclamation projects in disputed parts of the South China Sea. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that the goal was to improve the living and working conditions of personnel stationed in the area, safeguard China’s sovereignty and maritime rights, prevent and mitigate disasters, and conduct research, among others in a long list of very general justifications.

On Monday, Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar announced that a $20 billion deal to purchase multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) from France’s Dassault Aviation would not move forward. The contract would have provided for 108 of 126 aircraft to be built by India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, so its cancellation is a blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to bring more defense production to India.

Europe

Despite an effort from the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany to wind down fighting in the Ukraine, at least seven people were killed in a confrontation between government troops and Russian-backed separatist rebels. Six government soldiers were killed, as was one rebel fighter. The fighting was the worst violence in eastern Ukraine since mid-February.

Vladimir Putin lifted Russia‘s embargo on the sale of S-300 air defense missile system to Iran on Tuesday. The decision was a consequence of the framework agreement agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program reached last week by negotiators in Switzerland. The S-300 missile systems are defensive in nature. However, the missiles could well improve Iran’s ability to protect itself from airstrikes aimed at crippling its nuclear program should negotiations fail. Russia signed a deal to sell S-300s to Iran in 2007, but canceled the delivery when the United States and Israel protested that the systems could be used to protect Iran’s nuclear facilities. Delivery of the missiles should occur before the end of 2015. Experts say that the S-300 is a “potent system,” but Israel is confident that its offensive capabilities are up to the task.

Schoolteachers in the United Kingdom are concerned that new counter-terrorism laws require them to spy on their students. The teachers worry that the government’s anti-radicalization strategy (known as “Prevent”) demands that teachers monitor their students for signs of extremism. Some teachers feel this requires them to refrain from discussing current events related to terrorism and risks scapegoating Muslim students.

Middle East

Iraqi officials reported on Friday that their security forces killed Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, a former deputy to Saddam Hussein who allied himself with the Islamic State (IS) after the collapse of Mr. Hussein’s regime. Official reports claimed that Mr. al-Douri was killed by Iraqi soldiers and allied militiamen in fighting near near Tikrit, but America’s Central Intelligence Agency speculated that IS itself may have been responsible. Mr. al-Douri’s death has been reported before, and officials cautioned that final confirmation of the death would not come until DNA testing is conducted.

Iraqi officials also reported success in repelling IS fighters from areas around Baiji, the site of Iraq’s largest oil refinery. However, IS fighters launched an assault on the city of Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province. On Thursday, Haider al-Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister, warned that IS might become “unstoppable” if unchecked.

The Islamic State on Friday claimed responsibility for a car bombing near the American consulate in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan region. The attack killed three people, none of whom were Americans. On the same day, IS claimed responsibility for two car bombings in Baghdad that killed at least 27 people.

As fighting continues in Yemen between supporters of exiled President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi (supported by Saudi Arabia and a coalition of other mostly Arab nations), Shiite Houthi rebels (supported by Iran), and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsual, Mr. Hadi named a vice president. The new vice president, Khaled Bahah, was formerly the country’s prime minister and is more popular in certain segments of the population than Mr. Hadi. Al-Jazeera suspects that Saudi Arabia pressured Mr. Hadi to appoint a vice president out of concern that Mr. Hadi’s lack of a clear political vision to lead the country. Human Rights Watch released letter to Saudi Arabian and American officials alleging that the civilian death toll in the fighting has been unacceptably high and calling on the Americans to investigate potential violations of the laws of war. A UN official announced Monday that more than half of the people killed in the conflict so far have been civilians.

After hearing testimony about a chlorine gas attacks in Syria, the UN Security Council promised to take action against those responsible. Samantha Power, the United States ambassador to the UN, stated that evidence suggest that the attacks were launched from helicopters, to which the regime of Bashar al-Assad, but not any of the rebel or militant groups operating in the country, has access.

A private security firm discovered that hackers have managed to penetrate computer networks associated with the Israeli military. Most of the malicious code involved was built from widely available tools, rather than designed specifically for this attack, and relied on trickery rather than technical expertise to defeat security.

On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif proposed a peace plan for Yemen that would involve a ceasefire, a dialogue among Yemen’s various factions, and a broad-based government. He also called for an end to Saudi-led airstrikes on the Houthis. Even as Mr. Zarif proposed his plan, militia’s loyal to Mr. Hadi reported that they had repelled Houthi advances at several places in southern Yemen, including the port city of Aden. Also on Tuesday, the United Nations Security Council voted 14-0, with Russia abstaining, to impose an arms embargo on the Houthi rebels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is strengthening security along its border with Yemen and has vowed not to stop airstrikes until Mr. Hadi is reinstated.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) announced on Tuesday that Ibrahim al-Rubaish, one of the group’s leading clerics, was killed on Monday night in Yemen. According to AQAP, Mr. al-Rubaish was killed by an airstrike from an American unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Yemeni national security officials confirmed that Mr. al-Rubaish had been killed but would not say how he died. If he was indeed killed by an American drone, it would be the first such American airstrike since the beginning of the internal conflict in Yemen last month. Mr. al-Rubaish was held at the American prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. While there, he sued the administration of President George W. Bush to challenge his detention. He was released as part of a Saudi program to rehabilitate terrorist.

America’s Department of Defense released a report on Monday estimating that the Islamic State (IS) has lost about one quarter of the territory it held in Iraq last summer. The Pentagon credited the combination of American airpower and Iraqi ground forces with the reduction in IS’s sway, though Iraq’s prime minister says his country still needs more help from the international coalition to defeat IS. However, the assessment also noted that, while IS is losing ground in Iraq, the group is simultaneously expanding its presence in Syria. On Monday, IS militants breached the security perimeter around Iraq’s largest oil refinery at Baiji, but security forces and coalition airstrikes repelled them.

IS fighters captured Yarmouk, a Palestinian refugee camp near Damascus, early this month. Since then, IS has executed people in the street, and the camp lacks medical facilities and clean watter. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon described the camp as “the deepest circle of hell.”