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Parties negotiating limits on Iran’s nuclear program announced a framework agreement on Thursday, which they intend to finalize by the end of June. The talks had intensified ahead of a March 31 soft deadline for a deal. By Monday, three primary sticking points remained: the process of lifting restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program after 10 years, whether the sanctions on Iran should be lifted immediately or phased out, and the details of a mechanism for reimposing sanctions if Iran is found to have violated the terms of the deal. As talks approached their Tuesday night deadline, negotiators warned that the meetings might stretch into Wednesday, even amid signs that the most difficult issues might be postponed to a final agreement in June. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which is embroiled in fighting against rebels supported by Iran in Yemen, warned the United States not to allow Iran to capture too much of Iraq. A veteran Saudi journalist and former government adviser warned that America’s deal with Iran might kickstart Saudi Arabia’s and Turkey’s own nuclear weapons programs.
The Atlantic has the best summary of the terms of the framework announced Thursday. It reduces Iran’s ability to produce fissile material by limiting the number of centrifuges it may use to enrich uranium and permitting the country to enrich uranium only at the facility at Natanz, for the next ten years. Iran agreed not to enrich uranium beyond 3.67% (well below weapons grade) and to shrink its stockpile for at least fifteen years. The agreement also provides free access to Iran’s nuclear facilities and supply chain for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran also agreed to redesign its heavy water reactor at Arak so that it will not produce weapons grade plutonium. In exchange, the United States and European Union will lift economic sanctions once the IAEA verifies Iran’s compliance with the agreement.
The Washington Post has a good rundown on the framework agreement, and The Guardian has a detailed recap of the negotiations. The Economist praised the framework as “the best chance of containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” the Center for a New American Security called the agreement “a major step forward on the way to resolving the challenges associated with Iran’s nuclear program,” and Barry Blechman of the Stimson Center called it “a great deal for America.” Iranian president Hassan Rouhani hailed the deal as an opportunity for Iran to become a more engaged member of the international community and reasserted Iran’s intention to keep its promises.
But Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu feared the deal would pose a grave danger to Israel’s survival and demanded that the final agreement include an “unambiguous Iranian recognition of Israel’s right to exist.” Additionally, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations are concerned that the deal will disrupt the region’s balance of power. Even within the United States there was strong opposition. Most Republicans likely to run for president in 2016 criticized the framework, and Republicans (and some Democrats) in Congress have threatened to try and prevent an agreement. Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy argues that a lot is missing from the deal, and Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) said “that Neville Chamberlain got a lot more out of Hitler” and warned that lifting any sanctions on Iran would doom the Middle East to another war. A Politico piece on the deal cautions that Iran could game the final agreement unless certain changes are made. Jon B. Alterman, writing for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reminds us to keep the various parties’ goals and definitions in perspective.
Africa
Elections in Nigeria on Saturday, March 28, were mostly peaceful, but observers were still concerned about reports of irregularities. There was one report of an attempted bombing of the Independent National Electoral Commission, the organization that ran the elections. Despite the irregularities, opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari, a former military dictator, held a commanding lead over incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. With 35 of Nigeria’s 36 states reporting results, Mr. Buhari was declared the winner on Tuesday. The RAND Corporation has a short report on what a victory by either candidate might mean, and the BBC provides five reasons for Mr. Jonathan’s defeat.
Assuming the transition goes smoothly, Mr. Buhari’s succession would mark the first peaceful transfer of power to an opposition party in Nigeria’s history. There strong signs that that will happen, as Mr. Jonathan called Buhari to congratulate him and gave a gracious concession speech. The International Crisis Group cheered the election as a promising sign for the future of democracy in Africa.
Troops from Niger and Chad expelled Boko Haram from Malam Fatori, a town in northern Nigeria which the militant group had held since November. A spokesman for Chad’s military reported nine dead and 16 injured, and claimed that hundreds of Boko Haram fighters had been killed. Mr. Buhari has promised to spare no effort in defeating Boko Haram.
Four Al-Shabab militants attacked dormitories at Garissa University College in Kenya on Thursday. They shot several students and took some hostage, with initial reports indicating that at least seventy people were killed and the militants barricaded with an unknown number of hostages. By Thursday afternoon, government officials announced that the campus had been secured and all four attackers killed, though the death toll rose to 147. A Foreign Policy piece argues that America’s efforts to decapitate al-Shabab’s leadership have been mostly ineffective, while Amnesty international called for better protection of students and other civilians throughout northern Kenya. Locals wondered why the government did not order heightened security in response to intelligence that an attack on a school or university was imminent. Police in Uganda have obtained information that a similar attack might be being planned in their country.
Uganda postponed the trial of 13 men accused of involvement in a terrorist attack that killed 76 people in 2010. The attack was carried out by the militant group al-Shabab. The postponement was ordered after Joan Kagezi, the prosecutor on the case, was murdered by men on a motorcycle as she drove home with her children.
Americas
An American court approved the deportation of General Carlos Eugenio Vides Casanova, a general accused of overseeing killings and torture during El Salvador’s civil war. General Vides, now in the custody of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), offered to leave the United States voluntarily. ICE, however, has said he must be deported, though the agency delayed his deportation by at least a week.
United States president Barack Obama issued an executive order permitting the U.S. Treasury to freeze assets and stop transactions involving individuals and groups that commit cyber attacks. The move was prompted in part by a cyber attack on Sony last year. The White House explained the order in a blog post. Implementation, however, may present some challenges, and some experts are worried that the order sets too high a threshold to trigger sanctions.
Two women in New York were arrested on Thursday, charged with conspiracy to build and use an explosive device against people in the United States. Prosecutors claim to have evidence that the women viewed Islamic State propaganda on the internet, but do not believe they were in direct contact with IS. However, the criminal complaint alleges that the women had communicated with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. A Philadelphia woman was arrested Friday, on suspicions that she intended to travel overseas to join the Islamic State.
Plummeting oil prices have added to the long list of challenges that Venezuela faces, as oil exports make up 96 percent of the country’s exports. Additionally, Venezuela is struggling with shortages of basic goods, high inflation, a shrinking economy, demonstrations against an authoritarian government, and economic sanctions imposed by the United States on certain government officials. Those sanctions were imposed on officials who allegedly committed human rights abuses during government crackdowns on protesters. Despite some speculation that the sanctions may be emboldening President Nicolás Maduro, an article in Foreign Policy argues that the sanctions are hurting, and that Maduro fears more.
Asia
During a meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Barack Obama announced that he will delay the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, keeping 9,800 American soldiers in the country at least until the end of the year (by which point half of them were supposed to have left). Nonetheless, U.S. troop strength is down significantly from its peak of 101,000 four years ago. Mr. Obama also announced that $800 million in economic aid to Afghanistan will be tied to achievement specific development goals.
Meanwhile, a report revealed that Academi, the private security firm formerly known as Blackwater, received about 32% of the $1.8 billion America’s Department of Defense dedicated to eliminating Afghanistan’s opium trade. The efforts to quash narcotics trafficking have been almost entirely unsuccessful; land devoted to growing opium has increased 60% since 2011, and heroin and morphine account for about 15% of Afghanistan’s GDP.
Prayuth Chan-ocha, Thailand’s prime minister, asked the king for permission to end martial law, which was implemented before the army seized control of the country last May. However, General Prayuth seemed poised to introduce new laws via article 44 of Thailand’s constitution, which permits the prime minister to issue executive orders for national security reasons. Indeed, General Prayuth issued a new security order under Article 44 on Thursday, giving the military sweeping power to arrest and detain people and regulate the media.
Two members of the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front, a Turkish leftist terrorist group, evaded security at a courthouse in Istanbul by disguising themselves as lawyers on Tuesday and took a prosecutor hostage. The prosecutor was overseeing a case involving the death of a teenage boy that occurred after anti-government protests almost two years ago. After a six hour standoff, Turkish security forces stormed the courthouse. They managed to kill the prosecutor’s two captors, but the prosecutor was shot as well, and he later died of his wounds. On Wednesday evening, police shot two attackers outside Istanbul’s police headquarters. One of the attackers was a woman carrying a bomb.
A court in Turkey acquitted 236 people accused of plotting a coup in 2003, after the country’s highest court overturned their conviction last year. Among the defendants were several generals. A prosecutor explained that there was insufficient evidence to connect the defendants to digital data originally used to convict them, and that there were strong suspicions that the data might have been fake.
In spite of American opposition, China’s effort to create an Asian development bank is showing strong signs of success. Forty-six nations have already signed on, including staunch American allies like Britain, Germany, and Australia. Only Japan of the major Asian allies refused to join.
Even Taiwan announced on Tuesday that it will join the Chinese-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. China said it would welcome Taiwan, so long as Taiwan joined under the “One China” principle. Protesters and critics feared that the move constituted an admission that Taiwan is part of China.
China is reclaiming land in disputed areas of the South China Sea by dumping sand onto coral reefs and then paving them. China has already created 1.5 square miles (4 square kilometers) of new land.
Islam Karimov, the president of Uzbekistan, was reelected for a fourth term (though the country’s constitution limits the president to two) in elections held on March 29. Mr. Karimov has ruled the country for over 25 years, since it was under Soviet rule. However, the combination of Russia’s recession, Mr. Karimov’s age, and his lack of a clear succession plan may mean that his days of treating the country as his personal vassal state are numbered.
Europe
Six Britons were detained on Friday in the departure zone of the Kent port as part of an ongoing investigation of Syria-related terrorism offenses. Turkish authorities detained nine British nationals, who were allegedly attempting to cross the Turkish border into Syria. The BBC reported speculation that the Britons were attempting to join the Islamic State militant group.
Chechen fighters are joining the conflict in the Ukraine, on both sides. Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic and a Russian ally, has dispatched troops to fight with the pro-Russian separatists. At the same time, Chechen volunteers who support Chechnya’s independence from Russia are fighting with Ukrainian nationalists.
Middle East
On Tuesday, the UN warned that Yemen was on the brink of collapse. Saudi Arabia reported that its airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen were successful in pushing the Houthis out of contested airbases. The Saudis also blockaded Yemen’s major ports. However, forty civilians were killed and at least two hundred injured in an attack on a camp for displaced persons on Monday. The Houthis blamed a Saudi air raid, but Yemen’s foreign minister said Houthi artillery strikes were responsible. By Thursday, it was clear that a Saudi airstrike was indeed responsible. On Monday night, at least six more civilians burned to death in bombings. Then, on Tuesday night, an explosion at a dairy factory killed at least 27 people; once again, the source of the attack (likely either a Saudi airstrike or a Houthi artillery shell) was unknown. The Brookings Institution has a nice short backgrounder on the conflict in Yemen, and the New York Times editorial board fears that the war in Yemen could become a wider regional struggle between Shiites and Sunnis. On Thursday, al Qaeda fighters attacked a prison in Al Mukallah, freeing at least 270 prisoners, many of whom have links to al Qaeda. The United States has suspended embassy operations in Yemen, but announced that “there are no plans for a U.S. government-sponsored evacuation of U.S. citizens at this time.” Carnegie Endowment experts weigh in on what the cooperation among Arab states arrayed against the Houthi rebels means for the region and the world.
A coalition of fighters from Iraq’s military and the Shiite militias known as the Population Mobilization Units (PMU) continued to struggle in ousting the Islamic State (IS) from the city of Tikrit. According to one report, around 25,000 Iraqi government forces and some larger number of PMU fighters were unable to make progress against 400-1,000 ISIS fighters. On Tuesday, amidst fierce street-by-street fighting, Iraqi soldiers and state media reported that they had recaptured 40-75 percent of the city and were preparing to enter the presidential complex and provincial headquarters. By Wednesday, Iraq had claimed a “magnificent victory” over the Islamic State, the interior minister reporting that the militants had been “completely defeated.” In the aftermath of the victory, violence and looting have ruled the day in Tikrit, with the victors brutally killing suspected IS fighters and mobs burning down houses and looting shops.
The militant organization Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) captured the Syrian city of Idlib from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday. The conquest of Idlib may well mark the rebels’ most significant victory in two years. The attack also demonstrated more sophisticated battle tactics than the rebels have typically employed in the war, with thousands of JN fighters attacking government checkpoints from multiple directions in coordinated assaults.
On Wednesday, the Islamic State entered the Yarmouk neighborhood in southern Damascus and control of most of the area. The Islamic State left Yarmouk, which is primarily a Palestinian refugee camp, in February 2014 as part of a deal that left anti-government Palestinian groups in charge of the camp. The Islamic State was also active in the central Syrian province of Hama, killing dozens of civilians and gaining territory. These moves may have been a response to JN’s victory at Idlib, as JN and IS are rivals. In an article it claims was written by the British war photographer John Cantlie (whom IS holds hostage), IS suggested the possibility of a truce with Western states.