International Security Bulletin

Weekly Brief: March 23, 2015

Africa

On Wednesday, gunmen stormed a museum in Tunis, Tunisia, killing 22 people and injuring at least 22 more. Tunisian security forces killed two attackers in the ensuing firefight, but three remained at large. No organization immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but local groups affiliated with al Qaeda are active in the country, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies suspects that some cells have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Indeed, the Islamic State claimed responsibility the next day and promised more attacks in Tunisia. Tunisian authorities announced nine arrests on Thursday, claiming that four of the persons arrested were directly related to the attack. Foreign Policy reports that the attack threatens the last vestiges of the Arab Spring.

American military forces killed Adan Garar via a strike from an unmanned aerial vehicle near Diinsoor, Somalia. Mr. Garar was a key operative in the al-Shabab militant organization active in that country.  The U.S. Department of Defense asserts that Mr. Garar was connected to the Westgate Mall attack in Kenya last year.

Authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo arrested at least 26 activists, including some foreign journalists and an American diplomat, in Kinshasa on Sunday, March 15.  The initial wave of arrests was followed up with ten more in the eastern city of Goma on Tuesday. Human Rights Watch reports that the arrests are a bad sign for the openness of next year’s presidential elections.

Ugandan police shut down five Islamic religious schools (madrassas) due to allegations that the schools were training children to join the Allied Democratic Forces, a militant group based in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Muslim leaders denied the allegations and criticized the closures.

Americas

President Barack Obama told a crowd in Cleveland that he should have closed the American military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba on his first day in office. The controversial prison houses enemy combatants, persons who allegedly took up arms against America on behalf of militant organizations. The detainees live in legal limbo, some detained without charges or trial for many years. Mr. Obama promised to close the prison during his first presidential campaign, but legislation passed by Congress has now made that impossible.

Defense spending played an important role during negotiations regarding the United States budget. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said that the Republicans’ proposed budget wouldn’t provide the certainty needed to support the nation’s defense strategy. Some Republicans agreed, indicating that defense spending could be a critical sticking point in the budget debate. A Politico survey of GOP insiders indicated that cutting the deficit was important to them than increasing defense spending.

Europe

Wednesday marked the first anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in the Ukraine. Thousands of Russians rallied in Moscow in support of the annexation. Meanwhile in the Ukraine, continued violence cast doubt on the effectiveness of last month’s cease-fire agreement, and the proliferation of semi-autonomous armed groups throughout the country makes peace look a long way off. The Washington Post explores the strategy behind Russian and American decision-making regarding the war.

Serbian police arrested eight men allegedly involved in the 1995 Srebrenica Massacre, in which more than 8,000 Bosnian Muslims were killed. The highest profile arrestee was Nedeljko Milidragovic, the commander in charge of the forces that carried out the massacre.

On Sunday, Russia’s ambassador to Denmark threatened to target Danish warships with nuclear weapons if Denmark joined NATO’s missile defense shield. Danish officials criticized the remarks.

Middle East

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party won a larger-than-expected victory in elections for Israel’s Knesset, likely securing continuation of his reign as Prime Minister. During the campaign, Mr. Netanyahu declared that no Palestinian state would be created on his watch, to the dismay of observers who hope for a two-state solution. After the election, Mr. Netanyahu clarified that he, too, still hopes for two-state solution but believes current circumstances make it impossible. Mr. Netanyahu said that his top priorities were “real security, social economy, and strong leadership.” More coverage from Time and the Middle East Institute.

Iraq’s security forces temporarily halted their effort to retake the city of Tikrit from the Islamic State on Monday. The slow progress of the attack suggested that Iraq’s military may not be prepared for planned battles to retake Mosul and parts of Anbar province. Kurdish fighters reported that insurgents deployed chlorine gas against them.

Fighting in Yemen escalated. The conflict began when a Zaidi Shiite militia, known as the Houthis, forced the president (Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi), prime minister, and cabinet to resign. Since then, the Houthis have consolidated control in the north of the country, but fighting erupted in the city of Aden, in the south, on Thursday. As forces loyal to Mr. Hadi—whom the United States still recognizes as the country’s president—struggled to wrest control of Aden’s international airport from a renegade military officer, an unidentified plane attacked the presidential palace there. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the attacks, but the fighting continues escalate, with Houthi fighters seizing the southern city of Taiz and its airport. The fighting prompted concern, including a warning from the UN envoy, that Yemen may soon become embroiled in a civil war.

Oceania

Australia’s strict policy of refusing asylum for refugees who arrive by boat has resulted in more than 400 would-be refugees being sent to camps on the island nation of Nauru. The camps are guarded by private security contractors. Though Nauru prohibits refugees from talking with journalists, The Guardian reports that conditions in the camps are miserable, and that depression, physical abuse, and sexual assault are common.